The two most successful Heineken Champions Cup teams in the competition’s history will meet on a Saturday at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. 

In a repeat of last season’s semi-final at the same venue, four-time champions Leinster will be looking for a repeat of their 40 – 17 win over five-time champions Toulouse. 

Naming their sides today, the respective head coaches have left no stone unturned in picking their best available sides. 

Team News

Leinster head coach Leo Cullen will be without key backline generals Jonathan Sexton and Robbie Henshaw at ten and twelve, with star playmaker James Lowe also out. 

In their place come the more than capable trio of Irish internationals Ross Byrne and Jordan Larmour and former All Black Charlie Ngatai. 

The backline will therefore see the halfback pairing of Byrne and Jamison Gibson-Park, with Ngatai partnering Garry Ringrose in midfield. On the outside, Larmour will be joined by fellow internationals Hugo Keenan and Jimmy O’Brien in a dangerous looking back three. 

In the forwards, the side is captained by secondrow James Ryan, who is joined by Ross Malony. In the front row, the all-Ireland combination of Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong are tasked with handling the giant Toulouse scrum. 

Completing the pack, Caelen Doris, Josh van der Flier, and Jack Conan form a further all-Irish international combination. 

Toulouse head coach Ugo Mola has picked an immensely physical side with the fully French international front row of Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka and Dorian Aldegheri reacquainting themselves with their Irish counterparts. 

In the secondrow, the giant Australian combination of Richie Arnold and soon-to-be Sydney-born French international Emmanuel Meafou forms a gargantuan partnership that weighs in at nearly 600 lbs. 

Continuing the trend of physicality, English international Jack Willis links up with French internationals Thibaud Flament and Francois Cros to form a dynamic looking backrow. 

In the backline, arguably the game’s best player in former world player Antoine Dupont, joins his French international colleague Romain Ntamack in the halfbacks. 

Outside the halfbacks, Mola has named a powerful midfield partnership in Pita Ahki and Pierre-Louis Barassi. Whilst the back three offers some incredible pace and kicking ability, with fullback Thomas Ramos joining Matthis Lebel and Argentina international Juan Cruz Mallía. 

Prediction 

This fixture has all of the hallmarks of a class Heineken Champions Cup clash between two sides desperate to add another star to their jersey. 

In what looks to be about as close to a coin-flip game as we have seen in recent years, there are a few key factors that could prove to be the difference. 

For Toulouse, Antoine Dupont will need to be at his marvellous best to counter the militant like Leinster's defence. Spearheaded by their backrow, Leinster has shut down all comers this season and will be acutely aware of Dupont’s ability. 

Should he have one of those days where he pops up on teammates' shoulders with regularity, Toulouse will have a very real chance of winning. 

Another factor for the French side will be if they can physically dominate Leinster early on and sustain it. Their primary issue in last season’s semi-final was their inability to live with Leinster’s speed of play. If they can drag their hosts into more of an arm wrestle, then the metronomic kicking game of Ramos and Ntamack could do the rest. 

For Leinster, the prospect of losing a home semi-final and thus missing the chance to play in a home final is unthinkable. 

Shorn of Sexton, Henshaw and Lowe, Leinster are missing three of their key contributors. Yet, the system Cullen and senior coach Stuart Lancaster have put in place has proven that replacements can come in and be incredibly successful immediately. 

With Sexton’s Leinster career now done, Ross Byrne is the man in control for now. Playing the best of rugby his career, Byrne is now firmly entrenched as the number two behind Sexton in the national side. He will, however, be all too aware of the threat posed by his younger brother Harry and the upcoming talent of Sam Prendergast. Therefore, a big performance against a formidable opponent is crucial to his immediate security. 

The two biggest factors working in Leinster’s favour are, firstly, their incredible rate of play, which has crushed all of their opponents this season. Running teams off their feet whilst remaining exceptionally accurate is what makes this side so special. 

Secondly, the home crowd will play a big part in helping sway 50/50 decisions and could give the side just the boost they need. 

With all of the facts presented, this will be a tight clash, but one in which Leinster will edge. Billed as Ireland vs France II for 2023, and with good reason, the outcome will be similar to the Six Nations. Leinster by 6.