Connacht travel to the Kingspan Stadium in Belfast today for an Irish United Rugby Championship quarterfinal against rivals Ulster. 

Dan McFarland’s Ulster finished second on the combined table and will know that a victory over Connacht will guarantee a home semi-final. 

Recovering from a down period at mid-season, Ulster appears to have rediscovered the form that saw them get off to a red-hot start back in September. Yet, despite all the confidence they will have gathered since January, they will be acutely aware of the threats Connacht poses.   

Squeaking into the quarterfinals in 7^th position, Connacht rebounded from a downright awful start to the season that had them rooted to the bottom of the table. Victory over Munster in October would get their campaign off the mark, and since then, they have won twelve of their eighteen fixtures in all competitions.

Throw into the mix that only for a missed Jack Carty conversion, the two sides would’ve drawn when they last met in January, and one gets the sense this could be an awfully close fixture. 

Team News 

Naming their sides on Thursday, McFarland and Friend have made a number of changes to their respective sides. 

Starting with the hosts, Hooker Rob Herring is set to equal Andrew Trimble and Darren Cave’s all-time Ulster appearance record as he makes his 229^th appearance for the province. Herring’s start will see try-scoring phenom Tom Stewart enter the fray from the bench. 

Also achieving a remarkable milestone is winger Jacob Stockdale who will run out for the 100^th time in Ulster colours. Having endured a torrid run of injuries since bursting onto the scene in 2018. His return to form over the past month is a major boost for both Ulster and Ireland, at just 27-years-old he should just be entering his prime. 

Elsewhere, experienced secondrow Alan O’Connor will captain the side and will be partnered by Irish international Kieran Treadwell in the engine room. In the front row, Scottish international Rory Sutherland and former All-Black-turned-Samoan international Jeffery Toomaga-Allen link up with Herring to complete a formidable trio. 

In the backline, John Cooney and Billy Burns form the halfback partnership, with the versatile Nathan Doak providing cover from the bench. Whilst the centre combination will see Irish internationals Stuart McCloskey and James Hume reunited.

Joining Stockdale in the back three are Robert Baloucoune and Michael Lowry to complete a fully Irish international backline.

As is always the case with late-season fixtures, both sides have several players who will be departing at the season’s end. Speaking on the players who will be leaving his side, McFarland said: 

"All of the players moving on from Ulster can be rightly proud of what they have given to our province, both on and off the pitch, 

"It seems fitting that we get to recognise their contribution to the club in front of a home crowd at Kingspan Stadium on one of the biggest nights of our season. 

"I know the supporters will join me, and the wider playing group and staff at Ulster, in thanking the guys for the part they have played in our ambitions as a squad and some unforgettable memories for us all when they lined out in the white jersey." 

Connacht comes into the fixture boosted by the return of superstar duo Bundee Aki and Mack Hansen. The duo’s return to the starting line-up adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already frisky Connacht backline.

Aki’s clash with McCloskey pits two of the more physical centres in World Rugby against each other in what is essentially an Ireland trial. Whilst in the backline, Hansen’s battle against Baloucoune and Stockdale should make for box office viewing. 

Facing the immense challenge of the Ulster front row are Finlay Bealham, Dave Heffernan and Denis Buckley. Bealham’s head-to-head with Sutherland is another opportunity for him to re-iterate to Ireland coach Andy Farrell that he has built on his impressive showing during this year’s Six Nations. 

Perhaps the most interesting selection in the Connacht line-up is that of Cian Prendergast at number eight rather than at his usual blindside flanker role. Having watched his younger brother Sam garner most of the headlines over the past month, Cian will look to lay down a marker against World Cup winner Duane Vermeulen. 

Speaking about his side’s evolution this season, Friend said his side has come a long way since their last meeting with Ulster: 

"They [Ulster] were very good that night, they got on top of us in most areas of the field and most areas of the game. We had the return here around Christmas, and they got on top of us again. 

"I think we're a very different rugby team now. We've adjusted some things within our attack, we've adjusted things within our defence. I think our scrum continues to be a real weapon for us, our lineout and our lineout attack and maul have come on and continue to grow throughout the course of the year. 

"We're a very different team, even to the one that played the on the 23rd of December. 

"I think there's probably more pressure on them than there is on us. They're at home, they finished second on the ladder, we finished seventh on the ladder, and they've beaten us twice already this season. There's probably a weight of expectation with their fans and them thinking,

'This is another chance for us to win', whereas we're going up there with nothing to lose and everything to gain out of it. 

"Most importantly, the way that our game's built during the course of the season, I know we have elements of our game in attack and defence which can cause them problems. We have to make sure we deliver that." 

Prediction 

On paper, this clash is Ulster’s to lose as they enter as deserved favourites, given their home status and their overall body of work this season. 

Yet, it is hard to shake the feeling that Connacht might just have something up their sleeve, given their recent run of form. 

Across the board, Ulster holds the edge in terms of player depth, but the argument can certainly be made that in certain key positions, Connacht can edge them. One area in particular that would appear to be in the visitor’s favour is in the halfbacks, where the settled duo of Caolin Blade and Jack Carty have been sublime over the past three months. 

The match-up between Blade and Cooney is somewhat of a coin flip, but Carty is significantly better at managing a game than Burns and has more of a ceiling when it comes to creating positive plays. 

Whilst Ulster should take this, it will be mightily close and should come down to the wire. Given they are at home, we will go with Ulster but wouldn’t be surprised should Connacht pull off the upset. Ulster by 2. 

Line-Ups

Ulster: 15 Mike Lowry, 14 Rob Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Billy Burns, 9 John Cooney, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Dave McCann, 5 Kieran Treadwell, 4 Alan O’Connor (c), 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Rory Sutherland

Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Eric O’Sullivan, 18 Gareth Milasinovich, 19 Sam Carter, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Stewart Moore, 23 Craig Gilroy 

Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 John Porch, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Jack Carty (c), 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Cian Prendergast, 7 Conor Oliver, 6 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 5 Niall Murray, 4 Josh Murphy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Denis Buckley

Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Jack Aungier, 19 Oisín Dowling, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Tom Daly, 23 Byron Ralston