Star-studded Top 14 powerhouses Racing 92 and Stade Toulousain will meet in San Sebastian this evening in the semi-final one of the 2022/23 Top 14 season. 

On paper, this fixture has all the makings of a classic knockout match, with the respective team sheets being a who’s who of professional rugby. 

Having topped the regular season table, Toulouse enter the fixture as deserved favourites as they look to add a 22^nd French title to their unmatched resume. 

Spearheaded by the double threat of halfbacks Antione Dupont and Roman Ntamack, Toulouse have the ability to unleash a flurry of rapid attacks and, with them, score points in bunches. 

On the flip side, Racing are no slouches and have shown an ability to pierce defensive lines before threatening out wide. Generally operating off of set-piece “powerplays”, Racing utilises the pinpoint passing game of Scottish international flyhalf Finn Russell to remarkable effect. 

Where The Game Will Be Won 

Whilst there is no doubt that both backlines will fire shots in this fixture, one gets the feeling that this clash will be decided by the forwards. 

In this department, Toulouse holds the advantage by a slight margin based on the power they can call on from the bench. Boasting an all-international pack outside of number eight Alexandre Roumat (French U20 representative), the Toulouse pack have been arguably the best in the league so far this season. 

Racing to their credit have a strong pack yet have struggled at set-piece time throughout the season. Most noticeably against a 14-man Stade Français last weekend, where they conceded several penalties resulting in yellow cards. 

With this knowledge, Toulouse will likely keep the action tighter than usual with a view to pressuring the Racing pack into conceding penalties and possibly cards. 

Head-To-Head 

Over the past five clashes, there has been little to choose between the two, with Toulouse holding a 3 – 2 advantage. 

Crucially, however, Toulouse have won both fixtures this season, scoring close to 40 points in each game. The most recent of these meetings came in Paris on March 5^th, with Toulouse eking out a 39 – 35 victory. 

Whilst the scoreline would suggest a close encounter, Toulouse, for large parts, dominated proceedings. Racing would show their fight in this game as they scored two tries with twenty minutes to play but ultimately ran out of time to pull off an unlikely comeback. 

Prediction 

In the ever-shifting paradigm of sport, the current run of superiority that Toulouse are enjoying looks unlikely to change any time soon. 

Whilst the scoreline mentioned above was close, the fixture between the two sides earlier in the season was anything but, as Toulouse scorched their Parisian rivals 37 – 10.  

More importantly than this, Toulouse are proven winners, whilst Racing to put it bluntly, are not.  

Last winning a title in 2016, Racing have flattered to deceive on a regular basis in both the Top 14 and Heineken Champions Cup. Regularly putting out sides that, on paper, should be world beaters, they have routinely faltered in the big moments. 

Toulouse, on the other hand, outside of Irish powerhouse Leinster, have dominated all comers over the past three seasons.  

This big game nouse will once again be to the fore, and without looking past Racing, they will know that a likely meeting with La Rochelle in the final will be the real challenge.  

Thus, whilst there will no doubt be glitz and glamour on show, Toulouse will grind down their rivals once again and march on to yet another final. Toulouse by 9.