July 4th marks a special day in history. And while most celebrate the day with grilling and fireworks, Team USA will look to set something off theirselves as they meet England.

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July 4 | 9AM ET

Now, there’s obviously the low-hanging fruit (we’ve already reached for) to draw the parallels between this weekend’s fixture and the American Revolution, but we’d be remiss not to try and take inspiration during our nation’s proudest holiday. Reality, a mean old scrooge of her own, wants to slap the Eagles in the face and tell them there’s no way they’ll beat the 3rd-winningest team in test rugby history. But, Reality also told those same Eagle dreamers they’d have no chance to beat 8th-winningest team Scotland in 2018. 

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Perhaps. But a lot of things need to go right in order for this to happen. Let’s break this one down: 

The Lions Won’t be Roaring

It’s 2021, which means the British & Irish Lions are on tour. Which means the English ones won’t be suiting up for their country this weekend. Which means now’s as good a time as ever for the Eagles to put one over on the Poms. 

12 Englishmen have been chosen by Warren Gatland to represent the British Isles in South Africa this summer, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves - England’s active roster is still loaded. Ellis Genge, Sam Underhill, Marcus Smith, and Henry Slade will feature in the starting lineup, and each could’ve been picked for the Lions without an eyebrow raised. 

That said, 12 uncapped players in the match day squad says this England side won’t be quite the formidable force we’re used to seeing. 

The Eagles are Fully Professional

As we near the end of MLR Season 4, it could be said that great strides have been made by American rugby. Is the quality of Major League Rugby on par yet with that of the English Premiership? No - but you’re kidding yourself if you think the squads of MLR 2018 & 2019 are on the level that teams in MLR 2021 are. 

Bit by bit, this professional project in the States has picked up momentum, and the proof is in the putting of 18 MLR players on the matchday roster for Sunday. Are these guys battle-tested enough to challenge the best players in the world? Maybe not, but they see the Matt Giteau’s, Adam Ashley-Cooper’s, and Andy Ellis’ on a weekly basis nowadays. The Eagles are now a fully professional outfit, and as pros they won’t roll over. 

No MacGinty

Catastrophe struck at just the wrong time for the Eagles’ AJ MacGinty three weeks ago. In the 78th min of his English Prem side Sale’s regular season finale, the Life University grad suffered a serious knee injury and was carted off the pitch following his man of the match caliber performance. 

MacGinty has arguably been the greatest American (well okay natively Irish) rugby player ever. Since he burst onto the scene at the 2015 Rugby World Cup, AJ has won the Pro12 with Connacht in 2016 and been the go-to guy in the Sale 10-shirt since 2017. If he was good before, 2021 was the year MacGinty established himself as one of the best fly-halves in the Premiership - therefore the world. 

Hopes were high he’d be the talisman to lead us to another major upset - don’t forget his epic performance against Scotland - but so goes the nature of the sport, and it’s next man up. Young Luke Carty, brother of Ireland’s Jack Carty, will have big shoes to fill. 

Marcus Smith is a Bad Man

There may be no hotter player on the planet right now than England fly-half Marcus Smith. Having made his Premiership debut for Harlequins at just 18 years old, the now 22 year old is fresh off leading the Quins to the Prem title, upsetting heavily-favored Exeter in the final last weekend. 

While many have lamented his continuous omission from Eddie Jones’ England squad in recent years, his performances in the latter half of 2021 were so loud Eddie had to listen. If you haven’t seen Smith operate, think of him as England’s version of All Black Richie Mo’unga. He stands at just 5’9, 181lb, but the youngster’s control over the game paired with his uncanny ability to carve open a defense makes him the most exciting fly-half prospect England has seen since Owen Farrell emerged in 2012. 

Watch England vs USA Live on FloRugby!

July 4 | 9AM ET

Keys To Victory

For England, the keys are in their hands. Keep the pressure on the Americans and ruthlessly execute on any Eagle mistakes. The English are too good with ball in hand not to get their meters, but what’s important is their being able to finish off tries without coughing up the pill. 

For the Eagles, the keys to victory are all about accuracy and being clinical. It’s the first time they’ve been together in nearly two years, so it’s hard to imagine the continuity or even the chemistry will be there just yet. Therefore, the gameplan will likely be pretty basic - but it’s not about the complexity of the plan, but rather how well they can operate the plan they have. The kicks will need to find grass or find touch, the lineouts must be taken well, the handling errors must be at a minimum, and the tackles have to be consistent. 

Players to Watch

For England, there’s the aforementioned Underhill, Genge, Smith, and Slade, but don’t sleep on wingers Joe Cokanasiga and Max Malins. 

For the United States, winger Mikey Te’o has been in scintillating form, while Toulouse prop David Ainu’u comes into the team fresh off his side’s Top14 title in France, and all-time-leading test match front row try scorer Joe Taufete’e adds some serious firepower off the bench. 

Prediction

As much as we’d love to enjoy our Independence Day to the tune of the Eagles scalping the Poms, smart money is on England. It would be impressive if the USA can keep the game within 15 points, but with so little time together in the last few years, it’s unlikely. 

England 40-7 USA